A framework for assessing structural vulnerability to democratic backsliding
Enter a country above and click the buttons to analyze search trends, op-ed dynamics, and social media discourse for signs of democratic stress. "Elite Signals" is US-specific and tracks GOP coordination and propaganda effectiveness.
Estimated consolidation probability: 0-5%
Court independence from executive control, judicial appointments process, constitutional review capacity
Weight: 20%
Subnational autonomy, opposition control of states/regions, vertical separation of powers
Weight: 20%
Opposition party viability, electoral fairness, legislative independence
Weight: 15%
Press freedom, ownership concentration, journalist safety, information ecosystem health
Weight: 15%
NGO freedom, protest rights, union strength, associational life
Weight: 10%
Support for democratic NORMS vs. strongman rule (NOT admin approval). High = public open to authoritarianism
Weight: 10%
Civil society balance (Berman, Riley, Skocpol). Assess BOTH sides carefully. Regime: white evangelical churches (when activated), GOP committees, militias, conservative 501c4s, conservative Catholic orgs. Opposition: unions (teachers, SEIU, AFSCME), BLACK CHURCHES (Souls to the Polls - often more activated than white evangelicals), mainline Protestant networks, progressive Catholic groups (Nuns on the Bus), civil rights chapters, Indivisible. Catholics are SPLIT - assess both wings. Weight by turnout capacity, not media perception.
Weight: 10%
Bureaucratic coordination, security service loyalty, surveillance capability
Weight: 10%
Business elite alignment, corporate self-censorship, economic pressure compliance
Weight: 10%
Voter suppression, electoral fraud, foreign interference, gerrymandering
Weight: 10%
Built with theoretical frameworks from Linz, Levitsky & Ziblatt, Gramsci, Paxton, Svolik, and others.
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